(2) The commission shall design the method so that:

(a) A city using the method:

(A) Will have within its boundaries sufficient buildable lands and other development capacity, including land and capacity for needed housing and employment opportunities, to meet the growth in population and employment forecast to occur over a 14-year period.

(B) Will not become less efficient in its use of land as a result of a change to the urban growth boundary.

(b) The urban population per square mile will continue, subject to market conditions, to increase over time on a statewide basis and in major regions of the state, including that portion of the Willamette Valley outside of Metro.

(c) The rate of conversion of agricultural and forest lands to urban uses does not increase over time in any major region of the state.

(3) Under the method adopted by the commission:

(a) A city’s determination of the amount of buildable lands needed for housing, employment and other urban uses must be based on the population and employment growth forecast to occur over a 14-year period.

(b) A city’s determination of the supply and development capacity of lands within its urban growth boundary must be based on:

(A) A simple inventory of vacant and partially vacant buildable lands within the urban growth boundary;

(B) The comprehensive plan designation and the zoning of the portion of the buildable lands that is urban; and

(C) Simple factors established by the commission for forecasting:

(i) The development and redevelopment capacity of urbanizable lands within the urban growth boundary; and

(ii) The redevelopment capacity of developed urban lands within the urban growth boundary.

(c) A city’s determination of the supply and development capacity of lands the city proposes to include within the urban growth boundary must be based on:

(A) A simple inventory of vacant and partially vacant lands; and

(B) Simple factors established by the commission for forecasting the development and redevelopment capacity of the lands.

(d) A city shall demonstrate that lands included within the urban growth boundary:

(A) Include sufficient serviceable land for at least a seven-year period.

(B) Can all be serviceable over a 14-year period.

(e) Lands included within the urban growth boundary:

(A) Must be planned and zoned for categories of land uses in amounts that are roughly proportional to the land need determined for each category of use;

(B) Must be planned and zoned for an intensity of use that is generally consistent with the estimates that were used to determine the amount of land needed;

(C) Must be planned and zoned to meet the requirements for needed housing, and those requirements must be specified by rule of the commission in a manner that is as objective as practicable; and

(D) May be either:

(i) Planned and zoned, or otherwise conditioned, to avoid significantly affecting a state highway, a state highway interchange or a freight route designated in the Oregon Highway Plan; or

(ii) Allowed to significantly affect a state highway, a state highway interchange or a freight route designated in the Oregon Highway Plan subject to mitigation, consistent with rules of the commission, if the lands are planned and zoned for compact urban development or industrial uses.

(4) For purposes of subsection (3)(a) of this section, population growth must be forecast as provided in ORS 195.033. Employment growth must be forecast based on the population growth forecast for the city or the employment growth forecast issued by the Employment Department for the county or region. The commission shall establish factors, by rule, for converting the forecasted population and employment growth into forecasts of land need for housing, employment and other categories of uses. The factors must:

(a) Be based on an empirical evaluation of the relation between population and employment growth and the rate and trends of land utilization in the recent past in the applicable major region of the state;

(b) Reflect consideration by the commission of any significant changes occurring or expected to occur in the markets for urban land uses in that major region of the state;

(c) Be designed to encourage an increase in the land use efficiency of a city, subject to market conditions; and

(d) Provide a range of policy choices for a city about the form of its future growth.

(5) For purposes of subsection (3)(b) of this section, the commission shall establish factors for supply and development capacity that are:

(a) Based on an empirical evaluation of the population and employment growth that has occurred on similarly situated lands through development and redevelopment;

(b) Based on consideration by the commission of any significant changes occurring or expected to occur in the markets for urban land uses in that major region of the state;

(c) Designed to encourage an increase in the land use efficiency of the city, subject to market conditions; and

(d) Designed to provide a range of policy choices for a city about the form of its future growth.

(6) For purposes of subsection (3)(c) of this section, the commission shall establish factors that are:

(a) Based on an empirical evaluation of the population and employment growth that has occurred on similarly situated lands through development and redevelopment;

(b) Based on consideration by the commission of any significant changes occurring or expected to occur in the markets for urban land uses in each major region of the state;

(c) Designed to encourage an increase in the land use efficiency of the city, subject to market conditions; and

(d) Designed to provide a range of policy choices for a city about the form of its future growth.

(7) For lands that are included within an urban growth boundary pursuant to this section and not made serviceable within 20 years after the date of their inclusion, the commission may provide by rule that:

(a) The lands must be removed from within the urban growth boundary the next time the city evaluates the urban growth boundary; or

(b) The planned development capacity of the lands must be reduced if there are significant increases in the cost of making the lands serviceable.

(8) When lands included within the urban growth boundary pursuant to this section are planned and zoned for industrial or residential uses, the lands must remain planned and zoned for the use unless a rule of the commission allows a change in planning and zoning based on a significant change in circumstance. [2013 c.575 §4; 2013 c.575 §9]

Note: See note under 197A.300.